Why now? That's the question being asked in Arab capitals, at the Vatican, at the United Nations, and even in Washington, after President Donald Trump declared that the United States would recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and move the U.S. Embassy there from Tel Aviv. Calling it "long overdue," Trump described his decision as the fulfillment of a campaign pledge and "nothing more or less than a recognition of reality." Thanking him, Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu agreed: "Jerusalem," he tweeted, "has been the capital of the Jewish people for 3,000 years." Israel's Knesset, its parliament, is in West Jerusalem. So are its Supreme Court, its key ministries, and most key official institutions. Trump maintained that the dramatic step, endorsed by Congress in 1995 but consistently avoided by his White House predecessors, would not damage the search for a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict or change the status of Jerusalem's geographic and political borders. Those issues would still have to be agreed upon by Israel and the Palestinians, the White House said.
Initial responses were angry and swift, albeit predictable. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, calling for three "days of rage" to protest the move, said that the U.S. had disqualified itself as a neutral broker between the Palestinians and Israelis. So did militant Islamic leaders of Hamas, which rules Gaza and which the State Department has designated as a terrorist group. Eighteen countries also denounced the change, including some of America's usually more dependable allies. British prime minister Theresa May called Trump's decision "unhelpful in the pursuit of peace." Saying he "cannot remain silent," Pope Francis worried that the move would spark new tension and violence in the city revered by Jews, Christians, and Muslims. United Nations Secretary General António Guterres also expressed alarm.
Perhaps of greater concern was the reaction from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, all key players in the search for what Trump has called the "ultimate deal"—a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict—and vital allies in the United States' war on ISIS and Islamic extremism. All three, but particularly Saudi Crown Prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, have worked closely with Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and prime Middle East envoy. Administration officials recently promised that Trump would unveil Middle East peace plans soon. Given that ambitious and, some critics say, improbable diplomatic goal, wrote Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, "it's even more curious that Trump, seemingly committed to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, would want to inject the Jerusalem issue into the mix right now." Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis reportedly advised Trump against the announcement, warning that it would undermine American security interests in the region and efforts to negotiate a solution. While Trump stressed that he remained fully committed to the search for peace, his recognition of Jerusalem seems to complicate the political fortunes of the Arab allies whom he needs to accomplish his broader objective of defeating ISIS and weakening Iran.
The president's timing is certainly subject to debate. Some see Trump shoring up support among evangelical Christians, part of his political base. Others say that his decision is little more than political payback to Sheldon Adelson, the casino magnate, philanthropist, and strongly pro-Israeli Republican megadoner who pledged $25 million to an anti-Hillary super pac during the campaign and gave $5 million, the largest single donation, to Mr. Trump's inauguration. Others point to the influence of Jared Kushner and Vice President Mike Pence, both of whom were said to have pushed for the move. Still others say that his decision reflects his customary scorn for "experts" who consistently underestimate his survival skills and political resilience. Still others see Jerusalem merely as Trump's latest effort to distract attention from the deepening investigation of his administration and himself. Special counsel Robert Mueller's recent indictments of key Trump transition and administration officials have rattled the White House and, judging by recent tweets, unnerved the president. Whatever the case, Trump seems determined to be regarded as an unconventional leader who goes where his predecessors and rivals feared to tread.
Meantime, American officials will nervously monitor international reaction. Hours after Wednesday's announcement, U.S. embassies in Amman, Beirut, and other capitals warned American diplomats and residents to be wary, given anticipated protests that could become violent. "Review your personal security plans; remain aware of your surroundings . . . and monitor local news for updates," warned the U.S. Embassy in Jordan, which also declared a temporary suspension of "routine public services," ordered its diplomats not to travel outside Amman, and urged American civilians living in Jordan to maintain a "low profile."
In 2015, Palestinians comprised about 37 percent of Jerusalem's 850,000 residents. No one knows how they will react to this new development. An Israeli effort last summer, in the wake of a Palestinian terror attack, to install metal detectors to screen worshipers.on Jerusalem's Temple Mount, sacred to Jews, Muslims, and Christians, prompted days of protest and riots that led Israel to back down. But perhaps while paying lip service to the "sacred" cause, the Arabs have finally tired of constant Palestinian demands for unwavering financial and political support. Perhaps, after the failed Arab Spring uprisings, a decade of wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and now Yemen, the threat posed by Iran, ISIS, and other like-minded militant Islamic groups, the rallying cry of "keep Jerusalem Arab" no longer packs the same emotional punch. What if the Palestinians' plight no longer outrages young Muslims and sends them into the streets to protest and riot? The day to watch is Friday, when mullahs and clerics in the so-called "city of peace," and throughout the Muslim world, take to their mosques to rally the faithful.